The phase-out of carbon-intensive infrastructure is vital to climate change mitigation scenarios as envisioned in energy-economic and integrated assessment models. Coal-fired power plants are assumed to retire rapidly even in regions where plants are relatively new, depending on plant emissions factors and sectoral emissions constraints. In reality, retirements are multi-year, multi-stakeholder processes that result in various outcomes, ranging from plant conversions to adjacent new builds that leverage grid connection points. However, past phase-out experiences at 2,782 coal-fired units globally have yet to be systematically documented and analyzed.
In this project, we construct a database of historical coal phase-outs and their characteristics in China, India, Europe, and the U.S., four regions that together cover 90% of past retirements. We will analyze temporal and spatial trends in phase-out processes, identify best practices, and construct a set of empirically grounded projections for phase-out timelines and associated emissions.